| Inscrutability rises over prediction about the next leader in North Korea |
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| World Affairs Talk | |
| Wednesday, 16 May 2007 | |
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Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was founded on September 9, 1948. Around that time, it was only one among many other communist states around the world, including the USSR, People’s Republic of China and several countries in Eastern Europe. Sixty years later, North Korea stands as the last remaining stronghold of the socialist ideologies, when other communist states either rejected revolutionary orientation or simply ceased to exist. As China and Vietnam has already moved towards a market orientation with controlled democracy, North Korea is said to be the last Stalinist, hard-line communist state in Asia. It is simplistic to look at the country's power structure in terms of dynastic tendencies. The North Koreans themselves loathe the use of the word ‘dynasty’; but if it is not a dynasty, it is at least a very powerful kinfolk, and it is tough to suppose that Kim Jong-il's successor would be an outsider and not one of his inhabitants. As far as family matters go, Kim Jong-il is known to have seven children - four daughters and three sons. Speculation concerning the next leader of the country is largely focused on Kim Jong Nam, the first son of Kim Jong Il. He is first in line to inherit power from his father simply because the first son is generally favored in North Korea, where Confucian traditions that honor seniority still hold sway. Kim Jong-nam, in past remained loyal to his father and worked in the State Security Department. He was also put in charge of one of Kim Jong-il's favorite projects: the Korea Computer Center. But at present he appears to be out of contention to succeed his father as he remained in exile for last several years. He appears to be unable to return his homeland since leaving in 2001. In early February 2007, Kim Jong Nam was spotted in Macau. The junior has been living the high life in Macau for most of the past three years. He and his family have made their home on the territory`s leafy Coloane Island. The junior Kim has an international-media-covered bad incident in his belt. He was arrested on arrival at an airport in Japan in May 2001 for attempting to enter Japan with a forged Dominican passport, accompanied by a woman and a child, who were believed to be his wife and son. The incident caused Pyongyang severe diplomatic embarrassment. Several sources reports that junior Kim has not been allowed by his father to return to North Korea and has been lost in a power struggle with his two younger half-brothers. His maverick lifestyle caused himself to lose his father`s favor. The younger Kim`s overseas trips with no bodyguards and officials exceedingly indicate that he is out of contention to assume North Korea’s leadership as it is unthinkable for a possible crown prince to travel overseas alone especially at a time when tensions are running high in the wake of the North`s nuclear and missile tests. In that case, Kim Jong Nam`s 25-year-old half-brother, Kim Jong Chol, is most likely to succeed his father’s power because his mother Ko Yong Hi has been highly glorified in the North. Ko, who died of a heart attack in June 2004, has been described as 'respected mother' and 'great woman,' an apparent move to pave the way for father-to-son power inheritance. Jong-Chol is fluent in English and German, possibly also in French. He also makes frequent trips to France and other European countries as a member of Pyongyang's delegation to UNESCO. North Korea made a similar campaign to idolize Kim Jong Il`s mother, Kim Jong Suk, when the current ruler was earmarked to inherit the power of his father and national founder Kim Il Sung. In anther indication of possible preparation for power succession, some North Korean officials were seen wearing lapel pins illustrating Kim Jong Chol. Kim Jong Nam cannot be ruled out from the scene though as North Korea is a deeply ‘Confucian’ country that honors seniority and values its tradition. Another feather to Kim Jong Nam’s bag remains the strong backing by China. Father of the nation Kim Il-sung emerged from the ranks of anti-Japanese guerrilla fighters in the 1930s and he was groomed by the Soviet Union to be a leader in the Stalinist style. If the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies tomorrow, top Army officers of the 1-million-strong military would most likely take over. Kim Jong-il has seen the world around him change, and is trying cautiously to introduce some sort of ‘controlled’ free-market reforms. The third-generation Kims appear to be an entirely new breed; Western-educated and widely traveled computer buffs and Eric Clapton fans. When, and if, they take over, Pyongyang will rock in their foundation, that’s for sure. Share & Bookmark             |
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